Performance Report
The Performance report measures whether each analytical signal — drought, frequency, sum, and pattern — actually preceded correct draw results more often than random chance would over the selected window.
Why It Matters
Signals are only useful if they perform. This report is the accountability layer — it tells you which indicators added value in this dataset and which underperformed random selection.
How Stepzero Uses It
Stepzero calculates a lift score for each signal compared to a 50-point baseline representing pure random chance. Scores above 50 mean the signal outperformed random; scores below 50 mean it underperformed. The Best Insight and Weakest Insight cards identify the top and bottom performers at a glance.
Example
If the drought signal scored 62 over the last 90 days, it outperformed random selection by 12 points. If the pattern signal scored 44, it would have been better to ignore it than to follow it in that window.
The Baseline and What It Means
Score 50 is the coin flip — what you'd get by selecting combinations with no information at all. Every signal is judged against this line. A signal at 60 performed 20% better than random; a signal at 40 performed 20% worse.
Sarah aside: Weak signals are just as important to know as strong ones. They tell you where not to lean — and that's half of good analysis.
Window Matters
Performance scores change as you adjust the analysis window. A signal that worked well over 90 days might look different over 30. Before putting weight on a strong score, check whether it holds across multiple windows.
Oracle Query Starters
- How did the drought signal perform over the last 90 days for Florida Pick 3?
- Which signal had the highest lift in Pick 3 this year?
- Show me indicator performance for Florida Pick 3.
Deep Dive
Related Terms
Seen in These Reports
FAQ
Does a high performance score mean I should follow that signal?
A high score means the signal had predictive value in the selected historical window. Past performance is structural evidence, not a guarantee. Use it as one input, not a rule.
Why would a signal score below 50?
Below 50 means that following the signal would have performed worse than random selection in that window. It might be noise, window-specific behavior, or a signal that doesn't apply well to this game. The Performance report surfaces this so you can adjust.