Expected Frequency
Expected frequency is how often a specific outcome would happen, on average, if the game ran forever.
Expected frequency — how often an outcome would appear on average over the long run. A yardstick, not a schedule.
Game Families glossary term
Expected frequency must be matrix-specific or comparisons become misleading immediately.
Why It Matters
It's the yardstick behind every 'hot' or 'cold' report. Hot means running above the yardstick lately. Cold means running below it.
How Stepzero Uses It
Stepzero computes the expected frequency for each game and uses it as the fair comparison when calling something above or below average.
Example
Pick 3 has 1,000 possible straight combinations. If the game were perfectly fair and ran forever, each one would come up on average once every 1,000 draws.
Oracle Query Starters
- What is the expected frequency in this game for AZ-FANTASY5 over the last 365 draws and all-time baseline.
- Compare observed frequency versus expected frequency for AZ-FANTASY5 over the last 365 draws and all-time baseline.
- How does expected frequency change across families for AZ-FANTASY5 over the last 365 draws and all-time baseline.
Deep Dive
Also Called / Similar To
- frequency baseline
- matrix baseline frequency